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Why Mitch Trubisky will be the biggest free agency winner this year

The NFL free company interval doesn’t start till March 16, however we already know who the large winner goes to be. Mitch Trubisky received’t be the very best paid signing this 12 months, however a dearth of QB expertise and loads of needy groups will trigger him to earn far above his market worth.

It’s reached an absolute fever-pitch surrounding the previous Bears QB, to the purpose that some really ludicrous comparisons are being made, together with this from NFL.com.

“Statistically in Years 2-4, Trubisky compares favorably to the likes of Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers at that time of their careers.”

Trubisky is not a Hail Mary QB signing, he’s being in comparison with Corridor of Fame-caliber gamers. It’s foolish season, and nothing is sillier than this. We received’t know for certain how excessive these bidding wars will go, however we do have some concepts. ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler mentioned Trubisky’s identify is among the hottest out there, and that would simply result in a crew paying upward of $10 million per season.

On the floor which may not sound like quite a bit for a beginning QB, but it surely’s super for a participant who final made a paltry $2.5 million serving as Josh Allen’s backup in Buffalo. It’s much more unimaginable when you think about that Trubisky didn’t actually do something of notice, exterior of a play for a steady franchise.

There’s just one actual recreation that confirmed indicators Trubisky may nonetheless be an efficient beginning quarterback, and that got here in Week 2 of preseason in 2021. Dubbed the “Trubisky Revenge Recreation,” this was Mitch returning to Chicago to face the Bears, tearing them up by utterly 20-of-28 passes for 221 yards and a landing. It was a pleasant efficiency, certain — however is that actually sufficient to justify an enormous contract? It’s, solely as a result of groups imagine it’s.

To be truthful, it’s much less about that one recreation, and extra a notion that the Bears had been incompetent with their dealing with of the previous No. 2 general choose. That’s in all probability a good wager, but it surely additionally requires a hell of a leap of religion.

If we assume Trubisky makes $10 million a 12 months (and truthfully, it may go quite a bit increased) then it’s over double what Teddy Bridgewater made signing with the Broncos final 12 months, nearly three-times what Marcus Mariota made. Each gamers are much more confirmed commodities than Trubisky, however desperation causes unusual bedfellows. Make no errors, there are very determined instances for QB-needy groups. The Steelers and Saints try to get well from the retirement of their Corridor of Fame caliber QBs, the Giants aren’t 100% offered on Daniel Jones (and rumored to be considering Trubisky), the Seahawks want a brand new QB after buying and selling Russell Wilson, the Colts are searching for a passer too, and the Panthers, properly, they simply signal QBs for enjoyable at this level — even when it goes poorly.

Compounding these points is a mushy draft on the place. Even essentially the most stalwart followers of the 2022 QB class admit that each one these gamers want seasoning. There isn’t a evident Day 1 starter, exterior of perhaps Kenny Pickett, although he has in personal issues about hand measurement, angle, and skill to translate his recreation to the NFL. Essentially the most promising prospect, Malik Willis, is totally not able to take over a franchise instantly — and his success will doubtless hinge on touchdown with a protected, steady group the place he can sit for a 12 months or two behind a confirmed QB, to study not solely an NFL offense however get necessary reps in apply towards NFL competitors.

Ought to the gamble be proper, and Trubisky actually was merely a case of touchdown within the flawed place on the flawed time, then $10 million a 12 months is a relative steal for a beginning QB. Nevertheless, that feels extra like a prayer than a plan — and the groups needing passers proper now want strong plans.

There’s additionally a case to be made for doing each. This could contain signing Trubisky to a short-term deal, whereas additionally drafting a QB to attend within the wings. This could be a better of each worlds play, which may satiate followers instantly, whereas additionally having a tangible plan for the long run. It might additionally permit Trubisky to indicate what he’s fabricated from as a starter in a brand new scenario, probably getting one other massive contract on the tail finish for his bother.

It doesn’t matter what occurs subsequent, it’s a hell of a great time to be Mitch Trubisky. It’s solely getting higher as groups commerce away their starters. With Rodgers returning to Inexperienced Bay groups will now look to the following smartest thing in the marketplace, and that very properly might be Trubisky. He’s discovered himself shifting from being an afterthought, to entrance of thoughts — and the dude goes to get paid.

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